PART 1 – Options and Stock Market Technical Chart Analysis for October 16, 2009 by Idan Koren
Today we looked at many charts all around and have tried to make sense of the market action. While we got the strong pull back we expected early on in the day, the market did reverse and move higher making the daily S&P candle not so bearish. We still want a confirmation lower and a break of a trend line before we can get more bearish but the setup in other stocks excluding energy is to the downside. With the XLF showing huge down volume in the last 20 minutes it seems like we could see an H&S forming. Other tech look weak including BIDU, AAPL and AMZN (less weak). Financials including GS, and JPM sold off away from their highs and could be showing signs of a reversal or at least a prolonged consolidation. BAC is a very weak stock after it missed it’s earnings, with that in mind it might be worth shorting BAC and Citigroup ( C ) and going long the XLF as a hedge. I also expect WYNN to potentially hit lower lows.. but keep a stop at a descending resistance trendline, I have already gotten stopped out and i’m out of this position.
Duration : 0:5:1
Today we look at the patterns that are showing up and what to expect into next week. I reveal my larger positions and the hedges that are placed in for next week. A potential downside of 3% or more remains as we try to aim for the support levels of the megaphone and wedge formations. I also look at the XLF, SPY, Dow Jones, GLD, AXP and AMZN.
Today we look at various stocks to see more justficiation that we could be topping in the markets. We look at today’s action on the SPY, and how we made a newer low and then consolidated for most of the day only to find more selling pressure at the end of the day. Tomorrow can be another push lower simply because the market wants to form a H&S formation, and the head needs to completely form (i.e. move to 978-980 level on the SPX), before the right shoulder can form. That said, one day of consolidation is not out of the question yet. Overall, you can’t be fully bearish until the market breaks the wedge support found around the 960 level but ascending. Today we took profits on most of our shorts including JPM, as we see a possible push higher on some of the stocks as they form their respective H&S. We look at GLD, which we got stopped out of, since it broke it’s triangle formation to the upside and that might be another sign of fear entering the market. If GLD was an inflation hedge, the market would have been up when GLD was up, but it’s down. We also look athe XLF, STEC, RIMM and AAPL.
http://trade-technicals.blogspot.com
Hey guys,
Today we look at the SPY chart longer term, and talk about the fact that the market is showing similar signs to the action we saw 2 weeks ago, only one big thing has changed: The financials continue to underperform the market. Even though today was a commodity based rally due to weakness in the dollar, we believe that tomorrow will be the day that will decide wether this market is able to make new highs or if it’s going to go back lower to play the lower end of the wedge formation. We also talk about the JPM trade that we have on, and look at the financials XLF ETF that is forming a H&S.
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Today we looked at the strong rally on high volume and what it meant for the markets moving forward. I added a lot to my shorts in preparation for a continuation of the sell side as the market failed to stay above the channel support. With that in mind, i show the H&S formation that have been forming on the markets, and the neckline levels that need to be breached in order for us to see more downside. I have September puts on BEN, GLD (gold), XLF and SPY. My stops are placed in comparison to the SPY 101.65 level.
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Today we look at the damage that the bears have caused the market. Just like i mentioned in my last video, if the data today breaks stocks, there will be no bounce since all the bulls are trapped. The bears not only got to drag the bulls but broke important levels such as the 1035-1040 levels. I expect the market to possibly retest these levels (as high as 1042) in the days to come, and if these levels hold as resistance, we might break to the downside. Tomorrow we have Jobless claims fo the months of september and that will be a market mover for sure, though we do have more room for the downside. The next support level is between 1014-1018, and is also the infamous wedge support that we have been looking at for a while now. A break of that support would mean a new trend lower. If the bears do confirm another day below the 1035-1040, I will become a lot more bearish biased, in general. Volume today was stronger than most days, and therefore it’s significant! I also look at the VIX and show how it broke 27-28 levels, though i would like to see it break 30 before i become a true bear. I look at the USO and talk about the intraday trader there and te significance of the USO not breaking back into the triangle formation we had showed yesterday (despite talks on IRAN). In the other video I also talk about UUP, AAPL, AMZN, WYNN, LVS, FAZ, TZA, SRS, BIDU and SBUX very quickly.